Kotoku Wamura was the most hated mayor in the whole of Japan. In the 1960s, the Japanese government had come up with a scheme: the central government would pay 50% of the cost for any sea walls made, as long as the villages came up with the rest of the funds. 

Seawalls made a lot of sense because Japan is prone to constant earthquakes. And some earthquakes cause tsunamis. The last tsunami in 1933 was a 30 feet wave that had devastated a lot of coastal villages.

Wamura – who was the mayor of a small coastal village called Fudai, commissioned a giant 51 feet seawall! Everyone thought that was crazy. Most villages built 30 to 35 feet tall seawalls. But Wamura pushed ahead with 51 feet. And villagers hated it. Because not only would it increase their taxes, the tall ugly wall would also destroy the views of the ocean from their homes.

When people spoke about wasteful politicians, they gave the example of Kotoku Wamura. Until he died in 1997.

In March 2011, a massive tsunami bulldozed Japan. An insane 9.0 earthquake unleashed a tsunami with the tallest wave recorded at 66 feet! It obliterated other coastal towns. But barely touched Fudai. While other coastal villages lost 10 and even 20% of their population, Fudai was spared!

Kotoku Wamura was hailed a visionary hero – 15 years after his death!

“Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens — usually.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In the 1860s, after the great stink in London, Joseph Bazalgette designed the city’s sewers. During the digging and construction, he exclaimed: “we are only going to do this once, and there is always the unforeseen!” – and doubled the diameter of the sewage pipes that were laid down! This one single thing has allowed London to grow without sewage overflowing!

When telecommunications was booming, Bell Labs did the same. It planned for redundancy and overbuilt its copper wire infrastructure. It built multiple transmission lines and backup switching centres.

But then, fibre optic cables were introduced in the 1980s. SONET smart rerouting technology was built in the 1990s. Which meant, all the redundant copper wires were a colossal wastage and will never be utilised!

So when should one plan for redundancy and when should one not?

Why do we have 2 kidneys but only 1 heart?

Isn’t it the funniest of things? We have two kidneys when we can survive with just one. But we only have one heart and one brain! Why has nature and evolution built redundancy for some organs and not for others?

Kidneys work in removing toxins from the body. A lot can go wrong with this process. While the body can live with only one kidney, it will get sicker a lot often! Having two kidneys gives our body the capacity to heal.

So what about the brain? Well, we have two hemispheres of the brain – the left side and the right side! We can actually live an almost perfectly normal life if half the brain is removed!

Ok. But what about the heart?

Let’s bust a myth: when we get a heart attack, it’s not our hearts that stop beating. Nope. Instead, it means that one of the coronary arteries has gotten blocked, and now a part of the heart muscle isn’t getting oxygen. Our heart is one of the most resilient organs and will fail last, long after all the other organs have failed. Hence, it needs no redundancy. The coronary arteries themselves – we have a bunch of them (but unfortunately, modern eating practices are capable of overwhelming even a network of redundant arteries!)

Ok. What about the liver? We only have one liver too! Yes, but a liver has incredible regenerative properties! If you give half your liver lobe to someone, the remaining part will grow back double in size!

Nature has shown us when redundancy is required:

Redundancy is required when:

• We are planning for a very long time horizon
• Things are critical
• Failures are devastating
• Change is difficult to predict

It’s not needed when:

• Speed is of essence*
• Technology is fast moving
• You can quickly respond and fix failures

*Speed vs redundancy?

In December 2020, SN8 starship built by SpaceX exploded while landing! Experienced rocket scientists blamed Elon Musk for cutting corners and not building redundancies!

But Musk openly admitted that their entire focus was on quick iteration, not on building redundancies and playing it safe. He accepted the high risk of failures because it allowed him to innovate rapidly. 

As a result, Musk was able to outpace traditional aerospace giants like Boeing and NASA in developing cutting-edge space technology.

Every action requires energy. Your body could have 5 kidneys and 3 hearts too, couldn’t it? But the energy required for that would keep you stunted and slow. 

Kotoku Wamura could have built a 100 feet wall as well instead of stopping at 51 feet. But it would have bankrupted his village. While redundancy is important, it’s always a calculation of energy. You have to stop somewhere.

Action Summary:

• Build redundancy. Redundancy is a buffer that allows you to be flexible and adaptable and survive for longer.
  
• Build redundancy. Redundancy is a buffer that allows you to be flexible and adaptable and survive for longer.
  
• Identify critical points of failure in your system or business. Prioritize redundancy in areas where failure would cause catastrophic damage.
  
• But avoid over building if things are moving fast. Balance redundancy with speed in fast-moving or low-stakes environments.